Monday, 14 August 2017

a little someting for James

I'm still trading.  No changes in my strategy.  I cap my losses at $300 a day, and aim for at least $500 on my winning days.  All that matters is the logic of the market.   Here is my smartest day of the last six trading days (last Thursday), and my stupidest day of the last six trading days (today)






This market is a long on the higher time frame (I don't need any other chart for this besides the three minute - for me LTF is the longer trend, STF is the swings on the three minute).  I took the pullback into the last low with a stop below the low.  Scaled one at the last swing high, scaled the second at the daily high.  Put an order to scale back in ahead of the new swing low.  Got both filled on the spike down, took off another at the high, and the last on the breakout.  More than fifty ticks before market open.  Do this three days in a row and you are funded.

Now my most stupid day (and also the first full stop day since last Monday):





Market is a LTF short but a STF long.  I limit in with one to test the waters.  No stop above the swing. The reason I limit in with one is so that I can add another at the point of no return around .70.  But then when it trades there I don't like that it has been in a STF long for such a long time so I exit my one lot.  After the break down I set my limit order up to get filled with 2, and get run over.  I lost 29 ticks today.  Do that five days in a row and you are blown out of a combine or FTP.

Now I don't need to give any analysis of the bad trading today in psychological terms.  I lost money today not because I wasn't breathing deeply enough, or because I didn't get enough beta carotene yesterday, or because my wife aggravated me before I went into the office.  Maybe something like that messed up my thought process, but that is only the secondary cause.  The primary cause is in my thought process itself, and the way in which my thought process failed to be in sync with the market.


The proper thing to do (at least as my plan goes) is always to trade with the STF direction.  I am supposed to be trading the STF channel to the upside.  I could've scaled and re-entered one around that position while holding the other.  If the STF contradicts the LTF, I am not to do a blind limit in until I am close to the break point (to minimize my risk).  Limiting in short at .56 was way way way too early.  If I do try to play the LTF against the STF, stops must be behind the swing I'm leaning on (see the good day).  If I played .56 to .70 to the longside, with a reversal there, I would've had an easy 50+ ticks before market open again today.

Just focus on the logic of trading itself.  That is how you improve.

I probably won't post again any time soon.  I was just waiting for a dumb day to contrast with the smart day, so that I can make my point clear without cherry picking good trading.  I am comfortable trading now, but I still have bonehead days from time to time.

Monday, 29 May 2017

05-25-17


I've been sick since Thursday afternoon, and it's not just because of this trading.  I'm almost back to health and ready to trade tomorrow. 

Wednesday, 24 May 2017

05-24-17

Still trading scared.  Tomorrow I'm going to simplify, and just get positioned in a the direction of the short term trend and let the market do it's thing.  Lots of errors today (look at all that scratching!).

Tuesday, 23 May 2017

05-23-17

I'm not being funny: there is no point in trading if you are going to do this.  I risked 9 to make 20, limited in off the DOM, took zero ticks of heat, and the trade went to target, only first it came back to take me out BE plus 1.  It traded two ticks through my exit, printing the LOD from that point on.   Same old shit.  The only difference is that I don't self destruct, I just shake my head and walk away.

Monday, 22 May 2017

05-22-17

And that's trading boys.  I decided to put my order in, not at a nickle-and-dime place, but a logical location, and put a wide stop and watch how the trade played out, and slam! I'm taken immediately out for my daily stop out, and the market traded inside that whip the rest of the day.

Sunday, 21 May 2017

path to profit (week 16)

Goals
1) End My Trading Session Correctly (FAIL)
2) Trade with Short Term Trend (unless flipping a winner for a scalp) (FAIL)
3) Plan Each Trade (FAIL)
4) Do Not Abort Trade Off Plan (FAIL)

Week 01: 2/6 (-40 ticks)
Week 02: 2/6 (+16 ticks) [net: -24]
Week 03: 2/6 (+9 ticks) [net: -15]
Week 04: 2/6 (8 errors; +105 ticks) [net: +90] 3 Well-Behaved days; 2 mostly Well-Behaved days.
Week 05: 2/6 (6 errors; +45) [net: +135]  2 Well-Behaved Days; 2 Not Well-Behaved days
Week 06: 4/6 (more or less errorless; -2 ticks) [net: +133]  No range to work with.
Week 07: 3/6 (3 errors; +55 ticks) [net: +188]
Week 08: 3/6 (4 errors; +44 ticks) [net: +232]
Week 09: 2/6 (4 errors; +101 ticks) [net: +333]
Week 10: 2/6 (5 errors; -51 ticks) [net: +282]
Week 11: 1/6 (5 errors ;-18 ticks) [net: +264]
Week 12: 2/7 (2 errors; -17 ticks) [net: +247]
Week 13: NA (NA: +22 ticks) [net: +269]
Week 14: 2/4 (2 errors; +39) [net: +308]
Week 15: 1/4 (3 errors; +88) [net: +396]
Week 16:  0/4 (9 errors; 0 ticks) [net: +396]  

It's not this complicated....  I had orders to get long at 23 on Friday, all the way back 8am EST. I got tapped and not filled, then pulled the order down to .15, and then a few minutes latter it traded down to .20.  That print was the low for the rest of the day.

Why did I not just buy it at .23?  Here was my thinking: if I buy it at .23, I could put my stop at .17, which is six ticks of risk, and represents the swing low on the morning.   But it could certainly trade down below .17 a little bit, maybe taking out the stops at that swing and tapping the ETH VWAP.  So let me try to buy that flush instead.  Then I can put my stop all the way down at .90 and get below yesterday's high, and the round number, and the swing point at .02, and only risk .25.  If I buy .23, then my absolute-don't-want-to-be-long-anymore number is around .90 and my stop is 33 ticks.   I could buy .23 and then watch how it trades at .17, and if don't like it just get out, or watch it at VWAP, and if I don't like it just get out, or if...

I know which direction I want to trade in, and I know where the long term polarity flips in the market.  But I'm not sure how to put that together with the short term polarity.  At no point on a 10 minute chart did this market ever put in a lower high and then a lower low, but it did flip once on the 3 minute (I got long into that, realized the short term direction was short, got short, and then started flipping as I flipped between valuing the long term orientation and the short term orientation).

Nine days out of ten, if I just get positioned in a decent location, and don't stress keeping my risk as small as possible, and then watch what happens from there, I will do fine.   I missed a ton of fills this week trying to keep my risk as small as possible.   It comes down to still not being comfortable with a position on. 

Friday, 19 May 2017

05-19-17

The worst trading in a long long term.  Truly horrifying to behold. Eight errors, failure at every category.  My balls were somewhere in my throat.