Monday, 11 June 2018

CL 06-11-18

Pretty standard losing day for me: down 30 ticks.  We rejected the range high yesterday and opened up below yesterday's low, so I tried twice to get at least a test to the other side of the range and got stopped on both attempts.  The second entry was definitely questionable, as the new high before my entry definitively flips the short term polarity. I trailed a buy order behind the market at logical spots but never got a deep enough pull back to get correctly positioned on the day.

Friday, 8 June 2018

CL 06-08-18

Held my secondary trades a little longer.   Needed 15 ticks to get my grand.   Then aimed for one more leg up, could've gotten my grand on a retest of the high.  Took one easy scalp to get to $500 and ended the day. 

Thursday, 7 June 2018

CL 06-07-18

This is how I trade now-a-days.  I'm working on risking up to $500 a day now, and trying to work my way up to booking $1000 on my winning days.  I'm not holding my secondary positions long enough.  I still haven't cracked $1000 on a single day yet, but I'm consistently doing 60-70 ticks on my good days.

Wednesday, 17 January 2018

CL 01-17-18

I worked one short position yesterday below the previous day's low and got pretty much high-ticked out before all the downward action on a resting stop that I was not watching.  Had I not been sick I would've scalped around the position a little more and probably had a good day. 

What yesterday's action suggested to me, though, is that we are finally going to range out a little bit here.  I don't know how much stock to put in really old levels, but if you look at the move from 88.00 down to 40.00 that took place from mid-2014 to early 2016, there was only once place where the market accepted value, and that was from 62.50 to 67.00 from Jan-June 2015. (I'm still charting the February contract and backadjusting from there).  The last month's worth of price action took us right into the center of that range and now we have some acceptance between 63.30 and 64.60.  If we are going to continue to trend up, but in an orderly way, we may range here for a few more days, trade down to test the 61.25 - 62.00 area, and then continue upward.

Since I'm thinking range now, and since we traded down to 63.30 (which was my shortside target from yesterday) overnight, the market was a long once we re-captured yesterday's range.  Once we traded 63.60, we are the bottom of yesterday's value and could rotate lower, so that is the area to get flat and to consider a short that is at least good for a scalp.  I botched the first entry short and took the second, which should've been an add after the scalp out, and took a full stop.

But then we hold 63.60 and trade above it, which means we have re-captured yesterday's value, and have rejected Friday's value.  So that is time to take longs, with a target all the way back at the high of yesterday's value (62.20).  Long once, took off 2/3 lots, rotate back in, take off another 2, and then hold on the push up.  The market came three ticks from target and then sold off.  Again I was lying down, trying to get rid of this cold, and when I saw we missed target by three ticks and were back down at the round number I got out. 

Since the market bounced from the top of today's value and closed at weekly value, this makes the overnight action in tomorrow pretty legible.  If I wake up tomorrow and see we tested and rejected 63.60, I will be stalking a long for a rotation into 64.60.    An overnight move into 64.60 will set up an opposite dynamic: look for the rotation down into today's close.  The trickiest scenario would be a market trading between 63.10 and 63.60.  In that zone it will be difficult to tell if we have already tested the bottom of the range that may be developing and can look long, or should be looking for shorts around 63.60. 

No matter what the case, what I will be ready to do, as in all pre-report action, is find a tight and slow channel to play from both sides.  I may only be able to use those major references after the report.

Friday, 12 January 2018

CL analysis 01-12-18

That late day move is seriously bullish. 

Anything can happen, obviously, but think about what today's close means for where we stand right now.  First off, we had a 1.70 down move from the Thursday high to the Friday overnight low.  I went back over the hourly chart and that is the biggest retrace since the bull move started back in mid-December.  The next biggest retrace is only 2/3 the size of that move.   And it had a much more aggressive look than any selling we had seen in the last month.  By the late morning we had built up a significant quantity of volume in the exact same area as two days prior,  so after the short failed premarket, and the market opened with that huge buying spell, my plan was to play the day like a balance day inside the range from Wednesday.   The market had to work really hard to get up to yesterday's low, and then rejected it back into the range.    So that looked right.

My theory about end of week action is that we close where the market participants believe value is on the week.  So everything looked right for the market to re-accept the value that it established before yesterday's spike and sell off.  That's why I wanted to resell yesterday's low, with a target of 63.30, i.e. the balance low of that distribution.  

From here there is no reason to expect a massive sell off.  There is just too much support below for the market to bounce off of.  But if the market was going to go lower from here, I would've expected us to re-accept Wednesday's value to close the week, and then next week re-test some relevant breakdown area from Thursday and head lower to test 62.00

Well, what happened? 

Market participants drove price right through yesterday's RTH value, and right back up to the highly traded price of 64.40.  And they closed it there.  I mean, that is the highest price that I would've expected to see on a retest before another leg down, and they just went ahead and closed it there. 


Now we have a long weekend.  So maybe there were no sellers that interested in these prices ahead of the weekend and they'll slam it down once the weekend risk is gone.  I don't follow fundamentals or news, so I have no idea what they might've been waiting for.   But still, to close where we closed is impressive.  In my paradigm is means the sellers are not there yet.

I have not been bullish enough on this leg.  In retrospect I wish I was buying more swing lows and holding my longs for more profit.  But I learned a lot about psycho-directional price action from this last month of relentless buying.

Monday, 14 August 2017

a little something for James

I'm still trading.  No changes in my strategy.  I cap my losses at $300 a day, and aim for at least $500 on my winning days.  All that matters is the logic of the market.   Here is my smartest day of the last six trading days (last Thursday), and my stupidest day of the last six trading days (today)

This market is a long on the higher time frame (I don't need any other chart for this besides the three minute - for me LTF is the longer trend, STF is the swings on the three minute).  I took the pullback into the last low with a stop below the low.  Scaled one at the last swing high, scaled the second at the daily high.  Put an order to scale back in ahead of the new swing low.  Got both filled on the spike down, took off another at the high, and the last on the breakout.  More than fifty ticks before market open.  Do this three days in a row and you are funded.

Now my most stupid day (and also the first full stop day since last Monday):

Market is a LTF short but a STF long.  I limit in with one to test the waters.  No stop above the swing. The reason I limit in with one is so that I can add another at the point of no return around .70.  But then when it trades there I don't like that it has been in a STF long for such a long time so I exit my one lot.  After the break down I set my limit order up to get filled with 2, and get run over.  I lost 29 ticks today.  Do that five days in a row and you are blown out of a combine or FTP.

Now I don't need to give any analysis of the bad trading today in psychological terms.  I lost money today not because I wasn't breathing deeply enough, or because I didn't get enough beta carotene yesterday, or because my wife aggravated me before I went into the office.  Maybe something like that messed up my thought process, but that is only the secondary cause.  The primary cause is in my thought process itself, and the way in which my thought process failed to be in sync with the market.

The proper thing to do (at least as my plan goes) is always to trade with the STF direction.  I am supposed to be trading the STF channel to the upside.  I could've scaled and re-entered one around that position while holding the other.  If the STF contradicts the LTF, I am not to do a blind limit in until I am close to the break point (to minimize my risk).  Limiting in short at .56 was way way way too early.  If I do try to play the LTF against the STF, stops must be behind the swing I'm leaning on (see the good day).  If I played .56 to .70 to the longside, with a reversal there, I would've had an easy 50+ ticks before market open again today.

Just focus on the logic of trading itself.  That is how you improve.

I probably won't post again any time soon.  I was just waiting for a dumb day to contrast with the smart day, so that I can make my point clear without cherry picking good trading.  I am comfortable trading now, but I still have bonehead days from time to time.